Interpretable machine learning (IML) is concerned with the behavior and the properties of machine learning models. Scientists, however, are only interested in models as a gateway to understanding phenomena. Our work aligns these two perspectives and shows how to design IML property descriptors. These descriptors are IML methods that provide insight not just into the model, but also into the …

Neural density estimators have proven remarkably powerful in performing efficient simulation-based Bayesian inference in various research domains. In particular, the BayesFlow framework uses a two-step approach to enable amortized parameter estimation in settings where the likelihood function is implicitly defined by a simulation program. But how faithful is such inference when simulations are …

Data valuation, or the valuation of individual datum contributions, has seen growing interest in machine learning due to its demonstrable efficacy for tasks such as noisy label detection. In particular, due to the desirable axiomatic properties, several Shapley value approximations have been proposed. In these methods, the value function is usually defined as the predictive accuracy over the …

Widely observed neural scaling laws, in which error falls off as a power of the training set size, model size, or both, have driven substantial performance improvements in deep learning. However, these improvements through scaling alone require considerable costs in compute and energy. Here we focus on the scaling of error with dataset size and show both in theory and practice that we can break …

In any given machine learning problem, there may be many models that could explain the data almost equally well. However, most learning algorithms return only one of these models, leaving practitioners with no practical way to explore alternative models that might have desirable properties beyond what could be expressed within a loss function. The Rashomon set is the set of these all …

Deploying AI-powered systems requires trustworthy models supporting effective human interactions, going beyond raw prediction accuracy. Concept bottleneck models promote trustworthiness by conditioning classification tasks on an intermediate level of human-like concepts. This enables human interventions which can correct mispredicted concepts to improve the model's performance. However, existing …

Conformal inference is a powerful tool for quantifying the uncertainty around predictions made by black-box models (e.g. neural nets, random forests). Formally, this methodology guarantees that if the training and test data are exchangeable (e.g. i.i.d.) then we can construct a prediction set $C$ for the target $Y$ such that $P(Y \in C) = 1-\alpha$ for any target level $\alpha$. In this article, …

Weighted model counting consists of computing the weighted sum of all satisfying assignments of a propositional formula. Weighted model counting is well-known to be #P-hard for exact solving, but admits a fully polynomial randomized approximation scheme when restricted to DNF structures. In this work, we study weighted model integration, a generalization of weighted model counting which involves …

Annotating the right set of data amongst all available data points is a key challenge in many machine learning applications. Batch active learning is a popular approach to address this, in which batches of unlabeled data points are selected for annotation, while an underlying learning algorithm gets subsequently updated. In this work, we introduce Active Data Shapley (ADS) –a filtering layer for …

We introduce a framework for calibrating machine learning models so that their predictions satisfy explicit, finite-sample statistical guarantees. Our calibration algorithms work with any underlying model and (unknown) data-generating distribution and do not require model refitting. The framework addresses, among other examples, false discovery rate control in multi-label classification, …

We introduce a new paradigm for generative modeling built on Continuous Normalizing Flows (CNFs), allowing us to train CNFs at unprecedented scale. Specifically, we present the notion of Flow Matching (FM), a simulation-free approach for training CNFs based on regressing vector fields of fixed conditional probability paths. Flow Matching is compatible with a general family of Gaussian probability …

Conformal prediction is a popular, modern technique for providing valid predictive inference for arbitrary machine learning models. Its validity relies on the assumptions of exchangeability of the data, and symmetry of the given model fitting algorithm as a function of the data. However, exchangeability is often violated when predictive models are deployed in practice. For example, if the data …

The success of deep learning is thanks to our ability to solve certain massive non-convex optimization problems with relative ease. Despite non-convex optimization being NP-hard, simple algorithms -- often variants of stochastic gradient descent -- exhibit surprising effectiveness in fitting large neural networks in practice. We argue that neural network loss landscapes contain (nearly) a single …

Aided by advances in neural density estimation, considerable progress has been made in recent years towards a suite of simulation-based inference (SBI) methods capable of performing flexible, black-box, approximate Bayesian inference for stochastic simulation models. While it has been demonstrated that neural SBI methods can provide accurate posterior approximations, the simulation studies …

Recent progress in neural forecasting accelerated improvements in the performance of large-scale forecasting systems. Yet, long-horizon forecasting remains a very difficult task. Two common challenges afflicting the task are the volatility of the predictions and their computational complexity. We introduce N-HiTS, a model which addresses both challenges by incorporating novel hierarchical …

AI systems can create, propagate, support, and automate bias in decision-making processes. To mitigate biased decisions, we both need to understand the origin of the bias and define what it means for an algorithm to make fair decisions. Most group fairness notions assess a model's equality of outcome by computing statistical metrics on the outputs. We argue that these output metrics encounter …

We extend conformal prediction to control the expected value of any monotone loss function. The algorithm generalizes split conformal prediction together with its coverage guarantee. Like conformal prediction, the conformal risk control procedure is tight up to an $\mathcal{O}(1/n)$ factor. Worked examples from computer vision and natural language processing demonstrate the usage of our algorithm …

Recent large-scale text-driven synthesis models have attracted much attention thanks to their remarkable capabilities of generating highly diverse images that follow given text prompts. Such text-based synthesis methods are particularly appealing to humans who are used to verbally describe their intent. Therefore, it is only natural to extend the text-driven image synthesis to text-driven image …

We present the probabilistic model checker Storm. Storm supports the analysis of discrete- and continuous-time variants of both Markov chains and Markov decision processes. Storm has three major distinguishing features. It supports multiple input languages for Markov models, including the Jani and Prism modeling languages, dynamic fault trees, generalized stochastic Petri nets, and the …

We show that autoregressive language models can learn to infill text after we apply a straightforward transformation to the dataset, which simply moves a span of text from the middle of a document to its end. While this data augmentation has garnered much interest in recent years, we provide extensive evidence that training models with a large fraction of data transformed in this way does not harm …

Inferring parameters of computational models that capture experimental data is a central task in cognitive neuroscience. Bayesian statistical inference methods usually require the ability to evaluate the likelihood of the model—however, for many models of interest in cognitive neuroscience, the associated likelihoods cannot be computed efficiently. Simulation-­based inference (SBI) offers a …

Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINN) are neural networks (NNs) that encode model equations, like Partial Differential Equations (PDE), as a component of the neural network itself. PINNs are nowadays used to solve PDEs, fractional equations, integral-differential equations, and stochastic PDEs. This novel methodology has arisen as a multi-task learning framework in which a NN must fit observed …

Normalizing flows—a popular class of deep generative models—often fail to represent extreme phenomena observed in real-world processes. In particular, existing normalizing flow architectures struggle to model multivariate extremes, characterized by heavy-tailed marginal distributions and asymmetric tail dependence among variables. In light of this shortcoming, we propose COMET (COpula Multivariate …

Multi-defender Stackelberg Security Games (MSSG) have recently gained increasing attention in the literature. However, the solutions offered to date are highly sensitive, wherein even small perturbations in the attacker's utility or slight uncertainties thereof can dramatically change the defenders' resulting payoffs and alter the equilibrium. In this paper, we introduce a robust model for MSSGs, …

Formal verification has emerged as a powerful approach to ensure the safety and reliability of deep neural networks. However, current verification tools are limited to only a handful of properties that can be expressed as first-order constraints over the inputs and output of a network. While adversarial robustness and fairness fall under this category, many real-world properties (e.g., "an …

The goal of two-sample tests is to assess whether two samples, $S_P \sim P^n$ and $S_Q \sim Q^m$, are drawn from the same distribution. Perhaps intriguingly, one relatively unexplored method to build two-sample tests is the use of binary classifiers. In particular, construct a dataset by pairing the $n$ examples in $S_P$ with a positive label, and by pairing the $m$ examples in $S_Q$ with a …

Reinforcement learning (RL) offers the potential for training generally capable agents that can interact autonomously in the real world. However, one key limitation is the brittleness of RL algorithms to core hyperparameters and network architecture choice. Furthermore, non-stationarities such as evolving training data and increased agent complexity mean that different hyperparameters and …

Electronic proceedings of IJCAI 2022

Electronic proceedings of IJCAI 2022

Electronic proceedings of IJCAI 2022