Given a sample of size $N$, it is often useful to select a subsample of smaller size $n

Influence diagnostics such as influence functions and approximate maximum influence perturbations are popular in machine learning and in AI domain applications. Influence diagnostics are powerful statistical tools to identify influential datapoints or subsets of datapoints. We establish finite-sample statistical bounds, as well as computational complexity bounds, for influence functions and …

Operator learning trains a neural network to map functions to functions. An ideal operator learning framework should be mesh-free in the sense that the training does not require a particular choice of discretization for the input functions, allows for the input and output functions to be on different domains, and is able to have different grids between samples. We propose a mesh-free neural …

WeatherBench 2 is an update to the global, medium-range (1-14 day) weather forecasting benchmark proposed by Rasp et al. (2020), designed with the aim to accelerate progress in data-driven weather modeling. WeatherBench 2 consists of an open-source evaluation framework, publicly available training, ground truth and baseline data as well as a continuously updated website with the latest metrics and …

When trying to gain better visibility into a machine learning model in order to understand and mitigate the associated risks, a potentially valuable source of evidence is: which training examples most contribute to a given behavior? Influence functions aim to answer a counterfactual: how would the model's parameters (and hence its outputs) change if a given sequence were added to the training set? …

A data marketplace is an online venue that brings data owners, data brokers, and data consumers together and facilitates commoditisation of data amongst them. Data pricing, as a key function of a data marketplace, demands quantifying the monetary value of data. A considerable number of studies on data pricing can be found in literature. This article attempts to comprehensively review the …

The speed of gradient descent for convex Lipschitz functions is highly dependent on the choice of learning rate. Setting the learning rate to achieve the optimal convergence rate requires knowing the distance D from the initial point to the solution set. In this work, we describe a single-loop method, with no back-tracking or line searches, which does not require knowledge of D yet asymptotically …

Neural posterior estimation methods based on discrete normalizing flows have become established tools for simulation-based inference (SBI), but scaling them to high-dimensional problems can be challenging. Building on recent advances in generative modeling, we here present flow matching posterior estimation (FMPE), a technique for SBI using continuous normalizing flows. Like diffusion models, and …

We propose Geometric Clifford Algebra Networks (GCANs) for modeling dynamical systems. GCANs are based on symmetry group transformations using geometric (Clifford) algebras. We first review the quintessence of modern (plane-based) geometric algebra, which builds on isometries encoded as elements of the Pin(p,q,r) group. We then propose the concept of group action layers, which linearly combine …

The use of computer simulations as models of real-world phenomena plays an increasingly important role in science and engineering. Such models allow us to build hypotheses about the processes underlying a phenomenon and to test them, e.g., by simulating synthetic data from the model and comparing it to observed data. A key challenge in this approach is to find those model configurations that …

Continuous normalizing flows (CNFs) are an attractive generative modeling technique, but they have been held back by limitations in their simulation-based maximum likelihood training. We introduce the generalized conditional flow matching (CFM) technique, a family of simulation-free training objectives for CNFs. CFM features a stable regression objective like that used to train the stochastic flow …

Neural Posterior Estimation methods for simulation-based inference can be ill-suited for dealing with posterior distributions obtained by conditioning on multiple observations, as they tend to require a large number of simulator calls to learn accurate approximations. In contrast, Neural Likelihood Estimation methods can handle multiple observations at inference time after learning from individual …

Data valuation is a powerful framework for providing statistical insights into which data are beneficial or detrimental to model training. Many Shapley-based data valuation methods have shown promising results in various downstream tasks, however, they are well known to be computationally challenging as it requires training a large number of models. As a result, it has been recognized as …

Reinforcement learning (RL) provides a theoretical framework for continuously improving an agent’s behavior via trial and error. However, efficiently learning policies from scratch can be very difficult, particularly for tasks that present exploration challenges. In such settings, it might be desirable to initialize RL with an existing policy, offline data, or demonstrations. However, naively …

We introduce a framework for automatically defining and learning deep generative models with problem-specific structure. We tackle problem domains that are more traditionally solved by algorithms such as sorting, constraint satisfaction for Sudoku, and matrix factorization. Concretely, we train diffusion models with an architecture tailored to the problem specification. This problem specification …

Weather forecasting is important for science and society. At present, the most accurate forecast system is the numerical weather prediction (NWP) method, which represents atmospheric states as discretized grids and numerically solves partial differential equations that describe the transition between those states1. However, this procedure is computationally expensive. Recently, …

Regression trees are one of the oldest forms of AI models, and their predictions can be made without a calculator, which makes them broadly useful, particularly for high-stakes applications. Within the large literature on regression trees, there has been little effort towards full provable optimization, mainly due to the computational hardness of the problem. This work proposes a dynamic …

Although Shapley values have been shown to be highly effective for identifying harmful training instances, dataset size and model complexity constraints limit the ability to apply Shapley-based data valuation to fine-tuning large pre-trained language models. To address this, we propose TS-DShapley, an algorithm that reduces computational cost of Shapley-based data valuation through: 1) an …

ML-based weather prediction models have developed rapidly over the last year with exciting results. A group of our scientists discuss developments and their potential implications for the future.

We consider the problem of estimating the learning rate in adaptive methods, such as Adagrad and Adam. We describe two techniques, Prodigy and Resetting, to provably estimate the distance to the solution $D$, which is needed to set the learning rate optimally. Our techniques are modifications of the D-Adaptation method for learning-rate-free learning. Our methods improve upon the convergence rate …

Learning high-quality Q-value functions plays a key role in the success of many modern off-policy deep reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms. Previous works focus on addressing the value overestimation issue, an outcome of adopting function approximators and off-policy learning. Deviating from the common viewpoint, we observe that Q-values are indeed underestimated in the latter stage of the RL …

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) has emerged as a reliable approach to aligning large language models (LLMs) to human preferences. Among the plethora of RLHF techniques, proximal policy optimization (PPO) is of the most widely used methods. Despite its popularity, however, PPO may suffer from mode collapse, instability, and poor sample efficiency. We show that these issues can be …

In order to improve reproducibility, deep reinforcement learning (RL) has been adopting better scientific practices such as standardized evaluation metrics and reporting. However, the process of hyperparameter optimization still varies widely across papers, which makes it challenging to compare RL algorithms fairly. In this paper, we show that hyperparameter choices in RL can significantly affect …

In recent years, large language models have greatly improved in their ability to perform complex multi-step reasoning. However, even state-of-the-art models still regularly produce logical mistakes. To train more reliable models, we can turn either to outcome supervision, which provides feedback for a final result, or process supervision, which provides feedback for each intermediate reasoning …

While large-scale unsupervised language models (LMs) learn broad world knowledge and some reasoning skills, achieving precise control of their behavior is difficult due to the completely unsupervised nature of their training. Existing methods for gaining such steerability collect human labels of the relative quality of model generations and fine-tune the unsupervised LM to align with these …

Bayesian inference usually requires running potentially costly inference procedures separately for every new observation. In contrast, the idea of amortized Bayesian inference is to initially invest computational cost in training an inference network on simulated data, which can subsequently be used to rapidly perform inference (i.e., to return estimates of posterior distributions) for new …

Given the massive cost of language model pre-training, a non-trivial improvement of the optimization algorithm would lead to a material reduction on the time and cost of training. Adam and its variants have been state-of-the-art for years, and more sophisticated second-order (Hessian-based) optimizers often incur too much per-step overhead. In this paper, we propose Sophia, Second-order Clipped …

Language models are increasingly being deployed for general problem solving across a wide range of tasks, but are still confined to token-level, left-to-right decision-making processes during inference. This means they can fall short in tasks that require exploration, strategic lookahead, or where initial decisions play a pivotal role. To surmount these challenges, we introduce a new framework for …

While the emerging research field of explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) claims to address the lack of explainability in high-performance machine learning models, in practice XAI research targets developers rather than actual end-users. Unsurprisingly, end-users are unwilling to use XAI-based decision support systems. Similarly, there is scarce interdisciplinary research on end-users’ …

Influence diagnostics such as influence functions and approximate maximum influence perturbations are popular in machine learning and in AI domain applications. Influence diagnostics are powerful statistical tools to identify influential datapoints or subsets of datapoints. We establish finite-sample statistical bounds, as well as computational complexity bounds, for influence functions and …