The key limiting factor in graphical model inference and learning is the complexity of the partition function. We thus ask the question: what are general conditions under which the partition function is tractable? The answer leads to a new kind of deep architecture, which we call sumproduct networks (SPNs). SPNs are directed acyclic graphs with variables as leaves, sums and products as internal …

Policy search is a successful approach to reinforcement learning. However, policy improvements often result in the loss of information. Hence, it has been marred by premature convergence and implausible solutions. As first suggested in the context of covariant policy gradients, many of these problems may be addressed by constraining the information loss. In this paper, we continue this path of …

Anomaly detection is an important problem that has been researched within diverse research areas and application domains. Many anomaly detection techniques have been specifically developed for certain application domains, while others are more generic. This survey tries to provide a structured and comprehensive overview of the research on anomaly detection. We have grouped existing techniques into …

During the last decade, anomaly detection has attracted the attention of many researchers to overcome the weakness of signature-based IDSs in detecting novel attacks, and KDDCUP'99 is the mostly widely used data set for the evaluation of these systems. Having conducted a statistical analysis on this data set, we found two important issues which highly affects the performance of evaluated systems, …

The explosion of image data on the Internet has the potential to foster more sophisticated and robust models and algorithms to index, retrieve, organize and interact with images and multimedia data. But exactly how such data can be harnessed and organized remains a critical problem. We introduce here a new database called “ImageNet”, a large-scale ontology of images built upon the backbone of the …

Tuning parameters in supervised learning problems are often estimated by cross-validation. The minimum value of the cross-validation error can be biased downward as an estimate of the test error at that same value of the tuning parameter. We propose a simple method for the estimation of this bias that uses information from the cross-validation process. As a result, it requires essentially no …

In this paper we develop a polynomial method based on sampling theory that can be used to estimate the Shapley value (or any semivalue) for cooperative games. Besides analyzing the complexity problem, we examine some desirable statistical properties of the proposed approach and provide some computational results.

Most existing model-based approaches to anomaly detection construct a profile of normal instances, then identify instances that do not conform to the normal profile as anomalies. This paper proposes a fundamentally different model-based method that explicitly isolates anomalies instead of profiles normal points. To our best knowledge, the concept of isolation has not been explored in current …

A recent and effective approach to probabilistic inference calls for reducing the problem to one of weighted model counting (WMC) on a propositional knowledge base. Specifically, the approach calls for encoding the probabilistic model, typically a Bayesian network, as a propositional knowledge base in conjunctive normal form (CNF) with weights associated to each model according to the network …

Recently, fitted Q-iteration (FQI) based methods have become more popular due to their increased sample efficiency, a more stable learning process and the higher quality of the resulting policy. However, these methods remain hard to use for continuous action spaces which frequently occur in real-world tasks, e.g., in robotics and other technical applications. The greedy action selection commonly …

We define a notion of Ricci curvature in metric spaces equipped with a measure or a random walk. For this we use a local contraction coefficient of the random walk acting on the space of probability measures equipped with a transportation distance. This notions allows to generalize several classical theorems associated with positive Ricci curvature, such as a spectral gap bound (Lichnerowicz …

Many robot control problems of practical importance, including operational space control, can be reformulated as immediate reward reinforcement learning problems. However, few of the known optimization or reinforcement learning algorithms can be used in online learning control for robots, as they are either prohibitively slow, do not scale to interesting domains of complex robots, or require …

Abstract The reliability diagram is a common diagnostic graph used to summarize and evaluate probabilistic forecasts. Its strengths lie in the ease with which it is produced and the transparency of its definition. While visually appealing, major long-noted shortcomings lie in the difficulty of interpreting the graph visually; for the most part, ambiguities arise from variations in the …

People's reactions to coincidences are often cited as an illustration of the irrationality of human reasoning about chance. We argue that coincidences may be better understood in terms of rational statistical inference, based on their functional role in processes of causal discovery and theory revision. We present a formal definition of coincidences in the context of a Bayesian framework for …

For a d-dimensional diffusion of the form dXt = μ(Xt)dt + σ(Xt)dWt and continuous functions f and g, we study the existence and uniqueness of adapted processes Y, Z, Γ, and A solving the second-order backward stochastic differential equation (2BSDE) $$dY_t = f(t,X_t, Y_t, Z_t, \Gamma_t) dt + Z_t'\circ dX_t, \quad t ın [0,T),$$ $$dZ_t = A_t dt + \Gamma_tdX_t, \quad t ın [0,T),$$ $$Y_T = g(X_T).$$ …

Some of the most powerful techniques currently available to test the goodness of fit of a hypothesized continuous cumulative distribution function (CDF) use statistics based on the empirical distribution function (EDF), such as those of Kolmogorov, Cramer-von Mises and Anderson-Darling, among others. The use of EDF statistics was analyzed for estimation purposes. In this approach, maximum …

This is the first textbook on pattern recognition to present the Bayesian viewpoint. The book presents approximate inference algorithms that permit fast approximate answers in situations where exact answers are not feasible. It uses graphical models to describe probability distributions when no other books apply graphical models to machine learning. No previous knowledge of pattern recognition or …

Cross-validation (CV) is an effective method for estimating the prediction error of a classifier. Some recent articles have proposed methods for optimizing classifiers by choosing classifier parameter values that minimize the CV error estimate. We have evaluated the validity of using the CV error estimate of the optimized classifier as an estimate of the true error expected on independent data.

Numerical Optimization presents a comprehensive and up-to-date description of the most effective methods in continuous optimization. It responds to the growing interest in optimization in engineering, science, and business by focusing on the methods that are best suited to practical problems. For this new edition the book has been thoroughly updated throughout. There are new chapters on nonlinear …

Gaussian processes (GPs) provide a principled, practical, probabilistic approach to learning in kernel machines. GPs have received increased attention in the machine-learning community over the past decade, and this book provides a long-needed systematic and unified treatment of theoretical and practical aspects of GPs in machine learning. The treatment is comprehensive and self-contained, …

Introducing concepts, theory, and applications, Robust Statistics is accessible to a broad audience, avoiding allusions to high-powered mathematics while emphasizing ideas, heuristics, and background. The text covers the approach based on the influence function (the effect of an outlier on an estimater, for example) and related notions such as the breakdown point. It also treats the …

The Wiley Classics Library consists of selected books that have become recognized classics in their respective fields. With these new unabridged and inexpensive editions, Wiley hopes to extend the life of these important works by making them available to future generations of mathematicians and scientists.

We examine the relationship between the predictions made by different learning algorithms and true posterior probabilities. We show that maximum margin methods such as boosted trees and boosted stumps push probability mass away from 0 and 1 yielding a characteristic sigmoid shaped distortion in the predicted probabilities. Models such as Naive Bayes, which make unrealistic independence …

Probablistic robotics is a growing area in the subject, concerned with perception and control in the face of uncertainty and giving robots a level of robustness in real-world situations. This book introduces techniques and algorithms in the field.

Most machine learning researchers perform quantitative experiments to estimate generalization error and compare the performance of different algorithms (in particular, their proposed algorithm). In order to be able to draw statistically convincing conclusions, it is important to estimate the uncertainty of such estimates. This paper studies the very commonly used K-fold cross-validation estimator …