Decision tree algorithms have been among the most popular algorithms for interpretable (transparent) machine learning since the early 1980's. The problem that has plagued decision tree algorithms since their inception is their lack of optimality, or lack of guarantees of closeness to optimality: decision tree algorithms are often greedy or myopic, and sometimes produce unquestionably suboptimal …

Deep neural networks are revolutionizing the way complex systems are designed. Consequently, there is a pressing need for tools and techniques for network analysis and certification. To help in addressing that need, we present Marabou, a framework for verifying deep neural networks. Marabou is an SMT-based tool that can answer queries about a network’s properties by transforming these queries into …

Class probabilities predicted by most multiclass classifiers are uncalibrated, often tending towards over-confidence. With neural networks, calibration can be im proved by temperature scaling, a method to learn a single corrective multiplicative factor for inputs to the last softmax layer. On non-neural models the existing methods apply binary calibration in a pairwise or one-vs-rest fashion. We …

Natural gradient descent, which preconditions a gradient descent update with the Fisher information matrix of the underlying statistical model, is a way to capture partial second-order information. Several highly visible works have advocated an approximation known as the empirical Fisher, drawing connections between approximate second-order methods and heuristics like Adam. We dispute this …

Weighted model integration (WMI) is a recent formalism generalizing weighted model counting (WMC) to run probabilistic inference over hybrid domains, characterized by both discrete and continuous variables and relationships between them. WMI is computationally very demanding as it requires to explicitly enumerate all possible truth assignments to be integrated over. Component caching strategies …

Bayesian methods promise to fix many shortcomings of deep learning, but they are impractical and rarely match the performance of standard methods, let alone improve them. In this paper, we demonstrate practical training of deep networks with natural-gradient variational inference. By applying techniques such as batch normalisation, data augmentation, and distributed training, we achieve similar …

Conformal prediction is a technique for constructing prediction intervals that attain valid coverage in finite samples, without making distributional assumptions. Despite this appeal, existing conformal methods can be unnecessarily conservative because they form intervals of constant or weakly varying length across the input space. In this paper we propose a new method that is fully adaptive to …

We introduce a new generative model where samples are produced via Langevin dynamics using gradients of the data distribution estimated with score matching. Because gradients can be ill-defined and hard to estimate when the data resides on low-dimensional manifolds, we perturb the data with different levels of Gaussian noise, and jointly estimate the corresponding scores, i.e., the vector fields …

Risk scores are simple classification models that let users make quick risk predictions by adding and subtracting a few small numbers. These models are widely used in medicine and criminal justice, but are difficult to learn from data because they need to be calibrated, sparse, use small integer coefficients, and obey application-specific constraints. In this paper, we introduce a machine learning …

In safety-critical applications a probabilistic model is usually required to be calibrated, i.e., to capture the uncertainty of its predictions accurately. In multi-class classification, calibration of the most confident predictions only is often not suffi cient. We propose and study calibration measures for multi-class classification that generalize existing measures such as the expected …

We examine gradient descent on unregularized logistic regression problems, with homogeneous linear predictors on linearly separable datasets. We show the predictor converges to the direction of the max-margin (hard margin SVM) solution. The result also generalizes to other monotone decreasing loss functions with an infimum at infinity, to multi-class problems, and to training a weight layer in a …

High-dimensional PDEs have been a longstanding computational challenge. We propose to solve high-dimensional PDEs by approximating the solution with a deep neural network which is trained to satisfy the differential operator, initial condition, and boundary conditions. Our algorithm is meshfree, which is key since meshes become infeasible in higher dimensions. Instead of forming a mesh, the neural …

Model-free deep reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms have been successfully applied to a range of challenging sequential decision making and control tasks. However, these methods typically suffer from two major challenges: high sample complexity and brittleness to hyperparameters. Both of these challenges limit the applicability of such methods to real-world domains. In this paper, we describe …

We introduce a new family of deep neural network models. Instead of specifying a discrete sequence of hidden layers, we parameterize the derivative of the hidden state using a neural network. The output of the network is computed using a blackbox differential equation solver. These continuous-depth models have constant memory cost, adapt their evaluation strategy to each input, and can explicitly …

We propose a possible solution to a public challenge posed by the Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO), which is to provide an explainable model for credit risk assessment. Rather than present a black box model and explain it afterwards, we provide a globally interpretable model that is as accurate as other neural networks. Our "two-layer additive risk model" is decomposable into subscales, where each …

In this paper, we use deep feedforward artificial neural networks to approximate solutions to partial differential equations in complex geometries. We show how to modify the backpropagation algorithm to compute the partial derivatives of the network output with respect to the space variables which is needed to approximate the differential operator. The method is based on an ansatz for the solution …

In this work we apply the Deep Galerkin Method (DGM) described in Sirignano and Spiliopoulos (2018) to solve a number of partial differential equations that arise in quantitative finance applications including option pricing, optimal execution, mean field games, etc. The main idea behind DGM is to represent the unknown function of interest using a deep neural network. A key feature of this …

We developed a new class of physics-informed generative adversarial networks (PI-GANs) to solve in a unified manner forward, inverse and mixed stochastic problems based on a limited number of scattered measurements. Unlike standard GANs relying only on data for training, here we encoded into the architecture of GANs the governing physical laws in the form of stochastic differential equations …

The UCR Time Series Archive - introduced in 2002, has become an important resource in the time series data mining community, with at least one thousand published papers making use of at least one data set from the archive. The original incarnation of the archive had sixteen data sets but since that time, it has gone through periodic expansions. The last expansion took place in the summer of 2015 …

An effective method to improve neural machine translation with monolingual data is to augment the parallel training corpus with back-translations of target language sentences. This work broadens the understanding of back-translation and investigates a number of methods to generate synthetic source sentences. We find that in all but resource poor settings back-translations obtained via sampling or …

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have very successfully been used in numerical simulations for a series of computational problems ranging from image classification/image recognition, speech recognition, time series analysis, game intelligence, and computational advertising to numerical approximations of partial differential equations (PDEs). Such numerical simulations suggest that ANNs have the …

As the world becomes increasingly complex, so do the statistical models required to analyse the challenging problems ahead. For the very first time in a single volume, the Handbook of Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) presents an extensive overview of the theory, practice and application of ABC methods. These simple, but powerful statistical techniques, take Bayesian statistics beyond the …

Developing algorithms for solving high-dimensional partial differential equations (PDEs) has been an exceedingly difficult task for a long time, due to the notoriously difficult problem known as the "curse of dimensionality". This paper introduces a deep learning-based approach that can handle general high-dimensional parabolic PDEs. To this end, the PDEs are reformulated using backward stochastic …

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo has proven a remarkable empirical success, but only recently have we begun to develop a rigorous understanding of why it performs so well on difficult problems and how it is best applied in practice. Unfortunately, that understanding is confined within the mathematics of differential geometry which has limited its dissemination, especially to the applied communities for …

We develop and study multicalibration as a new measure of fairness in machine learning that aims to mitigate inadvertent or malicious discrimination that is introduced at training time (even from ground truth data). Multicalibration guarantees meaningful (calibrated) predictions for every subpopulation that can be identified within a specified class of computations. The specified class can be …

Modern neural networks have recently been found to be poorly calibrated, primarily in the direction of over-confidence. Methods like entropy penalty and temperature smoothing improve calibration by...

Partial differential equations (PDEs) play a prominent role in many disciplines of science and engineering. PDEs are commonly derived based on empirical observations. However, with the rapid develo...

In this work, we consider the problem of estimating a behaviour policy for use in Off-Policy Policy Evaluation (OPE) when the true behaviour policy is unknown. Via a series of empirical studies, we demonstrate how accurate OPE is strongly dependent on the calibration of estimated behaviour policy models: how precisely the behaviour policy is estimated from data. We show how powerful parametric …

Using established principles from Statistics and Information Theory, we show that invariance to nuisance factors in a deep neural network is equivalent to information minimality of the learned representation, and that stacking layers and injecting noise during training naturally bias the network towards learning invariant representations. We then decompose the cross-entropy loss used during …